Led by high-frequency indicators and economic prediction models, an article in Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin envisaged that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow between 6.1 per cent and 6.3 per cent in the June-September quarter of financial year 2022-23. “If this is realised, India is on course for a growth rate of about 7 per cent in 2022-23,” said the article in the State of the Economy report.
The RBI bulletin reasoned that supply responses in the economy are gaining strength. The cumulative procurement of rice during this kharif marketing season has already crested last year’s collection. Rabi sowing is up year-on-year backed up by good northeast monsoon rainfall and reservoir water storage levels.
The bulletin added that industrial production (IIP) overcame contraction in August to gain positive momentum in September after a gap of two months. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for October confirmed this. In the services sector, the PMI for October sped up from a six-month low in September. The construction sector also maintained its expansion, while contact-intensive services such as hospitality, travel, and recreation experienced massive growth.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das in his note acknowledged Centre’s prudent, targeted and time-bound policies across fiscal, monetary and regulatory domains for the healthy indicators.